Candidate: Alexander Dawoody

Degree of: Doctor of Philosophy

Department: Public Affairs and Administration

Title: U.S. Policy Toward Iraq Within the Context of
Complexity Theories

Committee: Dr. Peter Kobrak, Chair
Dr. Eric Austin
Dr. Adam Sabra

Date: Wednesday, November 3, 2004 9:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
211 E. Walwood Hall, SPAA Conference Room

Abstract: This research investigates the trajectory of the U.S. policy toward Iraq and the factors that went in the making of its phase shifts. The research is qualitative in nature, uses official governmental documents, articles, books, and focus groups and one-on-one interviews in order to answer three questions: How does a linear observation interpret the U.S. policy toward Iraq? How does the new sciences of complexity interpret the U.S. policy toward Iraq? And, how does a linear observation of the U.S. policy toward Iraq contrast and compare with that of a complex analysis?
The language of the research is metaphorical and its analytical model, the Phi Model, is designed to interpret the data in three steps. Step one is to observe the policy within a machine metaphorical model and according to the linear Newtonian science. Step two is to observe internal changes within the policy within a flux metaphorical model while guided by four complexity dimensions: autopoiesis, bifurcation, the S-Matrix, and mutual causality. And, step three is to observe changing trends in the environment that impacted the policy as guided by the same dimensions. Aided by Ethnograph for the purpose of coding the data, step one emerged with 67 concepts, 13 metaphorical themes,
and four super-themes. These super-themes (Mythticism, Dichotomy, Rational Choices, and Primordial Interests) constituted the data’s Interpretive Levels.
Step two emerged with the finding that the Newtonian linear analysis was a necessary first step in conducting a complex qualitative analysis. Other finding included that the United States’ nation-state primordial interest was a primary motive in the policy’s trajectory. This trajectory benefited from rational tactics but lacked a cohesive, clear, and consistent strategy, which characterized it with a dichotomous trait and contributed to the fallacy of its myth. And, step three emerged with the findings that the process of the policy’s trajectory was at the level of the total ecology of its ecosystem, changing within a pattern of relations that embraced changes in its environment. These changes did experience a collapse in the policy’s myths and tactics, allowing for new myths and tactics to emerge that were better equipped to deal with changing trends in the environment. Other aspects in the policy, however, such as its dichotomous nature and primordial interests resisted to collapse and remained as the same due to series of artificial engineering.

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