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Bias in the Success Case Method: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach
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Recently, the success case method (SCM) has become one of the most popular methods in applied evaluation. However, Brinkerhoff (2002) admits that the SCM produces biased information with respect to the central value. I utilize Monte-Carlo simulations to assess different issues related to the bias in the estimations of the SCM. I also propose intermediate steps to correct bias issues in the SCM results. |
Fractal Evaluation: New Methodology Based On New Science
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In this Evaluation Café, Kurt Wilson draws on the classic book “Leadership and the New Science,” in which Margaret Wheatley, EdD challenges traditional organizational structures based on Newtonian science, demonstrating how ideas drawn from quantum physics, chaos theory, and molecular biology could improve organizational performance. These ideas are a provocative challenge to evaluation, which has similarly been rooted in a Newtonian perspective with linear logic-models, measurement tools based on averages, etc. This Evaluation Café will provide a brief background to these ideas with the intent of sparking a lively discussion about the specific needs and opportunities for new evaluation theory and methodology. |
The Use of Sensory and Analytical Evaluation to Match the Flavor of Onion Powder in a White Sauce
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Dehydrated onion consumption in the United States is estimated at 200 million dry pounds annually. Increased consumption, a single growing region and bacterial concerns of dehydrated onion create a need for a low cost, low microbial count onion powder replacer, such as a natural onion extract. In this Evaluation Café, Polly Barrett discusses how sensory panels were used to evaluate flavor profiles in onion powders and onion extracts, using a white sauce matrix, such that production can meet demand. Barrett shares the results of the sensory panel, as well as the correlation of sensory data with analytic data to show how the flavor profile of an onion extract can be shifted toward the flavor profile of an onion powder. These modified onion extracts could be used in most food applications where dehydrated onion products are used. |
When Good Evaluations Go Bad: Lessons Learned the Hard Way
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As aspiring new evaluators, we began work on a fairly large evaluation project filled with excitement and hopes of making an impact. It soon became clear, however, that things were not going to go as planned. Come join us in an honest discussion about the political nature of evaluation and what to do when things begin to spiral out of control. Be prepared to (anonymously) share your own horror stories as well and offer suggestions for heading off problems. There will also be a drawing for books and resources for new evaluators. |
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